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Top doctor says B.C. isn’t modelling possible COVID-19 death tolls

B.C.’s provincial well being officer says she has no plans to create projections of how many individuals would possibly die of COVID-19, calling the eventual death toll an unpredictable quantity.

Dr. Bonnie Henry’s feedback on Thursday got here after federal well being officers launched fashions suggesting between 11,000 and 22,000 may die from an infection with the novel coronavirus.

“I don’t believe there’s value in some of the types of projections that have been presented,” Henry mentioned.

“Our modelling is about what we need to prepare for. As you can see, deaths are not something that can be predicted. It depends on how your outbreak evolves.”

During her each day information briefings, Henry has repeatedly used the phrase “all models are wrong, but some are useful” to explain how the general public ought to view any projections or estimates for COVID-19.

Watch: Dr. Bonnie Henry explains B.C.’s method to modelling

Dr. Bonnie Henry says the province’s excessive proportion of deaths in long-term care houses doesn’t mirror the group transmission. 0:46

B.C.’s modelling so far has targeted on estimating whether or not the province has sufficient hospital beds and different assets to deal with the worst-case state of affairs for an outbreak.

Henry mentioned that B.C. has contributed knowledge to the federal authorities to assist with modelling on the nationwide degree. But she cautioned reporters that the mortality figures launched Thursday needs to be learn as a variety of potentialities, not a prediction of the long run.

“Death data is not something that is easily projected into a model, because scenarios can be very different,” Henry mentioned.

“If you look at ours, for example, where we have a lot of long-term care outbreaks, we have a high proportion of deaths in those outbreaks. It doesn’t reflect the general transmission of this virus in our community.”

Henry plans to launch B.C.’s most up-to-date fashions on COVID-19 subsequent week.

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